Comments on: Higher Gas Prices Alone Won’t Make Cleaner Cars a Reality

By: zach

zach — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:25:47 +0000

Larry, agreed with your first statement. It takes years for people to change their vehicles, and gas prices just weren't high enough for long enough. Perhaps we need a comparison across countries? I recently spent time in the UK ($6.50/gallon) and Egypt ($1.25/gallon) and my lungs tell a very clear story.

By: MU

MU — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:10:20 +0000

There's some valid points here, but I'm not sure the data proves the premise. Consistantly as gas prices rose during this time there was the belief the price was being driven by speculators and that it was artificially high. Buying behavior was somewhat affected by short term prices. But to affect automakers design and production, there has to be a firm expectation that high gas prices are a long term reality. Bringing a new car to market can take up to 10 years, even for a fairly conventional design. For car makers to make a bet on less profitable, more efficient designs, they have to believe high prices are here to stay. Dan Becker is correct that "strict laws" will "force industry to change its wasteful ways." However, that assumes the current suite of CAFE laws are ever going to be strict. They are and likely always will be riddled with loopholes designed to help domestic automakers compete against foreign makers that have had to deal with high gas prices in their home markets for a generation. Whether there is political will to put in high enough gas taxes to really change the landscape is debatable. But when you set an energy cost higher, there are no loopholes. All manufacturers will work on ways to make their products more competitive. Regardless, the bigger issue is that moderate improvements in gas mileage is not going to make much of a difference in GHG emmissions and climate change anyway. It's akin to asking your attacker to push the knife in you "slower and not quite so deep." Much more radical change in transportation systems, land use, and energy sources will be required to have any meaningful impact. Even if we all drove Priuses, we are still releasing massive amounts of GHG that the system cannot absorb.

By: Larry

Larry — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 01:32:17 +0000

Elana -

Your trend line is pretty short. Oil prices crashed after the spike, enabling higher consumption. Now that they appear to be settling around 80, we'll get a chance to see what our real consumption looks like. The comparison isn't versus consumption at the price peak, but with consumption in 07 or so.

By: Elana Schor

Elana Schor — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:19:28 +0000

Andrew - You're quite right. The chart in the EPA's report uses the symbol "g" to refer to gallon, but in this case it should have been labeled "gram." Thanks for the heads up.

Larry - As it happens, US gas consumption since June has been posting monthly and year-over-year increases, according to the government's Energy Information Administration. Link here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html#US_Crude_Oil_And_Liquid_Fuels

By: Larry

Larry — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 06:39:39 +0000

Come on. US gas consumption has declined since the price spike. Recycling the fleet takes 15 years or so, and longer in times as tough as these. And prices crashed as quickly as they had risen. If you want proof, check out your local Hummer dealer, if you still have one. Those folks are not happy campers, because nobody is buying those rides anymore.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 04:42:16 +0000

"In real pollution terms, that means the average American car will emit just 2 gallons fewer CO2 per mile this year than it did in 2008."

You can't measure a gas by volume. Gases will fill up any container you put them in. Gaseous carbon dioxide must be measured by weight.